Groups tied to President Trump have reserved more than $130 million in advertising in recent weeks to help Republican candidates in the 2026 midterms, the Washington Post reported.

This account currently relies on Washington Post. We have not independently corroborated it.

Control of Congress for the second half of Trump's term is at stake, and this spending signals how seriously Republicans view the threat of losses. The strongest case for skepticism is that the president's party has lost seats in most midterms regardless of spending, while the case for significance is the scale of money now being deployed by a single political operation.

The president's party has lost House and Senate seats in most midterm elections since 1934, averaging a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats over that period, according to historical election data. Trump's flagship super PAC, MAGA Inc., largely sat out the 2022 midterms to preserve money for his 2024 campaign, on which it later spent $456 million. After the 2024 election it raised money at a record pace, and by January 2026 reported roughly $294 million in cash on hand. Heading into the 2026 midterms, Democrats have posted strong results in 2025 special elections and off year races, including wins in the Virginia and New Jersey governor's races, and have held a lead on the generic congressional ballot in September 2026 polling.

1. 2022-09-23MAGA Inc. founded. MAGA Inc. was formed as a super PAC that can raise unlimited money to support Trump but cannot coordinate directly with his campaign. Source
2. 2022MAGA Inc. sits out midterms. MAGA Inc. did not play a significant role in the 2022 midterms, saving its money for Trump's 2024 campaign instead. Source
3. 2024MAGA Inc. spends big on Trump's campaign. MAGA Inc. spent $456 million supporting Trump's bid to return to the White House. Source
4. 2025 (Sept)Democrats overperform in Virginia special election. Democrat James Walkinshaw won a special election in Virginia's 11th Congressional District by roughly a 50 point margin. Source
5. 2025-11-04Democrats win Virginia and New Jersey governor's races. Democrats won decisively in both races in the first major electoral test of Trump's second term. Source
6. 2026-01MAGA Inc. reports large cash reserve. MAGA Inc. reported $294 million in cash on hand in an FEC filing, after raising $102 million in the second half of 2025. Source
7. 2026-09Trump-aligned groups reserve over $130 million in ads. Groups tied to Trump reserved more than $130 million in advertising for the midterms, with Trump saying he was allocating $400 to $500 million in total. Source

2018 midterm elections (first Trump term). Both involve a first or second term Trump era midterm in which Republicans campaigned actively to defend congressional seats amid an unfavorable political environment.

Where the comparison breaks down: In 2018 Trump's own campaign operation, not a super PAC, led ad spending, and MAGA Inc. did not yet exist; Republicans ultimately lost 41 House seats despite that effort.

• It is not yet clear which specific candidates or races will receive the largest share of the reserved ad spending.
• Whether the spending will meaningfully change the outcome in competitive races is unknown.
• The full scope of Trump-aligned group spending for the rest of the campaign has not been finalized.
• Historically the president's party has lost seats in most midterms regardless of spending levels, so the effect of this spending is untested.

Watch whether the ad spending narrows Democratic leads in generic ballot polling or in specific competitive Senate and House races over the coming weeks.

• Washington Post: Trump, Republicans launch ad blitz for midterms as races favor Democrats · Headline and summary · 21 September 2026

Read the original reporting at the links above. Our analysis can be wrong and may change as evidence develops.

• Republican 'cavalry' arrives with a Trump-backed $150 million ad blitz in key races — NPR
• Unprecedented Big Money Surge for Super PAC Tied to Trump — Brennan Center for Justice
• In 2025, Democrats Flipped 21 Percent of GOP-Held Legislative Seats — Bolts
• The 2022 Midterm Elections: What the Historical Data Suggest — The American Presidency Project (UCSB)