Al Jazeera reports that fighting intensified across parts of Tigray on Wednesday and spread to Afar and Amhara, with the Tigray Army saying federal forces launched a "full-scale offensive" using infantry, mechanised units and drones, and that it had begun counteroffensives. Tigrayan forces seized airports in the region and Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Tigray, while local reports said Abala in Afar had been captured. Federal adviser Getachew Reda gave the opposite account, accusing the TPLF of attacking first.

This account currently relies on Al Jazeera. We have not independently corroborated it.

Ethiopia is Africa's second most populous country, and the 2020 to 2022 Tigray war was one of the deadliest conflicts of recent decades; a return to fighting on several fronts would reach far beyond Tigray. The strongest case for alarm is that armed movements which used to fight each other are now coordinating against the government, and IGAD and the UN have already voiced concern. The case for caution is that early war reporting is often partial, accounts of who started conflict are contested, and it is not yet clear whether the offensive is sustained or limited.

Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018 and reorganised the ruling coalition, sidelining the TPLF, which had dominated Ethiopian politics since 1991. War broke out in Tigray in November 2020 and ran for two years, with Eritrean troops and Amhara forces fighting alongside the federal army. The Pretoria agreement of November 2022 stopped that war but did not include Eritrea or the Amhara Fano fighters, both of whom later fell out with Addis Ababa, and conflict in Amhara began in 2023. The deal also split the TPLF between figures who defended it, such as Getachew Reda, and a faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael that rejected the order it created. According to the reporting, about three-quarters of a million people in Tigray were already displaced from the earlier war, and seven armed movements from Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz areas recently joined in one alliance against the government.

1. 1991TPLF-led coalition takes power in Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, an alliance of regional insurgent movements led by the TPLF, overthrew the Derg government and ruled Ethiopia for nearly three decades. Source
2. 2018Abiy Ahmed becomes prime minister. After protests centred in Oromia, Abiy took office and began reshaping the ruling coalition, sidelining the TPLF, which retreated to Tigray. Source
3. 2020War breaks out in Tigray. Fighting began in November 2020 after a dispute over regional elections and an attack on federal army bases in Tigray. Eritrean and Amhara forces fought alongside the federal army. Source
4. 2022Pretoria agreement ends the Tigray war. The federal government and the TPLF signed a cessation of hostilities deal in South Africa in November 2022. Eritrea and the Amhara Fano forces were not parties to it. Source
5. 2023Conflict opens in Amhara. Federal plans to dissolve regional special forces triggered fighting between the army and Fano militias across Amhara. Source
6. 2024Ethiopia's Red Sea access push strains ties with Eritrea. Abiy's drive for sea access, including a memorandum with Somaliland in January 2024, deepened the rift with Asmara and unsettled the wider Horn of Africa. Source
7. 2025TPLF splits over the peace deal. Divisions hardened between figures who defended the Pretoria settlement, such as Getachew Reda, and a faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael that rejected the order it created. Getachew later became an adviser to Abiy. Source
8. 2026Seven armed movements form a single alliance. The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival brought together the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army and others, committing to remove Abiy's government. Fighting widened days later. Source

Outbreak of the Tigray war, November 2020. A sudden federal military push into Tigray, immediate disagreement over who fired first, communications and transport cut off, and rapid spread of fighting into neighbouring regions.

Where the comparison breaks down: In 2020 the federal government fought the TPLF with Eritrean and Amhara allies at its side; now those former allies are estranged from Addis Ababa and the TPLF sits in a coalition with Fano and the Oromo Liberation Army, so the government faces several regions at once rather than one.

• The two sides give opposite accounts of who began the fighting, and neither has been independently verified.
• The geographic extent of the offensive, and casualty and displacement figures, are not yet known.
• It is unclear whether Eritrea is involved in the current fighting.
• Only one publisher's reporting is available so far, drawn largely from phone interviews and local reports.

Whether the fighting keeps spreading beyond Tigray, Afar and Amhara, and whether the new alliance's member groups open coordinated fronts in Oromia and elsewhere. Also watch for any formal statement that the Pretoria agreement has collapsed, and for signs of Eritrean involvement.

• Al Jazeera: Fighting widens across Ethiopia as Tigray clashes escalate · Full article · 24 September 2026

Read the original reporting at the links above. Our analysis can be wrong and may change as evidence develops.

• Understanding Ethiopia's Tigray War — Martin Plaut and Sarah Vaughan
• The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa: Money, War and the Business of Power — Alex de Waal
• Ethiopia country page and conflict reports — International Crisis Group